UK General Election 2017 – Guide to Election Night

election17

Today, millions of people in the United Kingdom will cast their vote in a snap general election. Here’s a rough guide to when we might know the final result and the declarations of some of the key seats.

2200

At 10pm, the poll close and an exit poll will be released, which will give us some idea of what the final result might be. However, exit polls have sometimes been wrong – having underestimated the Conservatives lead at the last election.

2300

One of the first seats to declare, without fail, is Sunderland and Houghton. At the last election, they declared the result at 10:48pm so expect the first announcement by 11pm. Expect every political pundit trying to gauge the national swing from the only result of the night!

0100 June 9

Some important seats come in around 1am tomorrow morning, such as Nuneaton (a crucial seat Labour failed to gain in 2015) and Vale of Clwyd. Seats like Darlington and Wrexham will also be out, where the 2015 UKIP vote could determine the fate of several MPs.

0200

Thurrock, a three-way fight between UKIP, Labour and the Conservatives, will be another one to watch and give us some idea of how well UKIP is performing in this election.

Bury North, a seat with a small Conservative majority, is another seat that Labour need to win if they are to gain a majority in Parliament.

If Plaid Cymru makes a gain this election, Ynys Mon could well be it – it is Labour’s most marginal seat in Wales, with the Welsh nationalists close behind.

0300

This hour, we have a number of bellweather constituencies, including Watford, Bristol North West, and Gower – the closest seat in the country, with a Tory majority of just 41 votes at the last election.

The Greens will be hoping for at least an increase in vote share in the Isle of Wight, having come third in 2015.

0400

A wave of seats will come through within this hour and by the time Theresa May is (probably) re-elected in Maidenhead at around 0430, we should probably know who the next Prime Minister will be.

Lincoln and Dover will declare at this point – they have followed the national trend since the 1980s, so they will be a good indicator of what the result will be (if it is not already clear by this point).

Also around 4am is Rochdale, where Simon Danczuk is running as an independent after being suspended from the Labour Party. Will voters favour him over the Labour candidate?

If the Liberal Democrats lose their only Scottish seat, Orkney and Shetland, they are probably in for a rougher night than 2015.

However, if there is a Lib Dem fight back, we should see that in seats such as Bath, Colchester and Solihull, which are just some of the seats they lost to the Conservatives two years ago.

A sign of a Tory revival in Scotland might appear in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Scotland’s most marginal seat. The Conservatives trail here to the SNP by only 328 votes.

Meanwhile, former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg will be hoping that Labour’s pledge to scrap tuition fees does not topple him in a seat where many students live.

0500

Paul Nuttall and UKIP face a big moment in the party’s history when the results for Boston and Skegness are announced. The party won roughly a third of the vote in this Brexit-backing seat in 2015 – is it enough for UKIP to return to Parliament?

Bristol West saw a surge in Green support in 2015 and is probably the party’s best chance of gaining a second MP – can they do it?

Pro-Brexit Halifax, where Theresa May launched her general election campaign, was on a knife edge in 2015 – with a Labour majority of just 500.

At 5:44am at the last election, the Tories overtook Labour in the number of seats won – this is because Labour’s seats in small urban areas declare much earlier than Conservative seats in rural areas.

Hove will see Peter Kyle fighting off a strong Conservative challenge to his 1,000 vote majority.

0600

The sun is up and we probably all know who is forming the next Government by this point, but there are still many seats to declare.

Brighton Pavilion will announce whether the Green’s only MP, Caroline Lucas, has done enough to keep her seat, whilst Brighton Kemptown will see a close race between Labour and the Conservatives. Simon Kirby is defending a majority of 690 – could the decision by the Greens and UKIP not to field a candidate make all the difference?

Liberal Democrats hoping for a revival will have their eyes fixed on St Austell & Newquay, as well as Cornwall North, whilst a Labour fightback would see them retake Waveney – a seat lost to the Tories seven years ago.

0700

By this point, pat yourself on the back as you have survived Election Night!

If you are still up, there are a couple other seats of interest, including Thanet South – where the Conservative candidate, Craig Mackinlay was charged with alleged election fraud. Could this make a difference to the result?

Morley & Outwood saw Ed Balls lose his seat to the Conservatives in 2015 by 422 votes – will Andrea Jenkyns strengthen her majority just two years on?

 

 

 

 

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